Beyond GDP: the metrics exist, the decisions have not moved

Side event · 13 July 2026 · The Goals Lounge, UN Headquarters, New York
Session
“Beyond GDP: Moving from Analysis to Impact,” convened by the UN Office for Partnerships
Moderator
Lydia DePillis, economics reporter, The New York Times
Panel
George Gray Molina, Head of Inclusive Growth and Chief Economist, UNDP · Grace Wood, Head of the Sustainable Development Team, UK Mission to the UN · Rodolfo Reta Haddad, Permanent Mission of Mexico to the UN
From the floor
Livia Bizikova (IISD), Otto Saki (Ford Foundation), Ignacio R. García Lumbreras (Minister Counsellor, Permanent Mission of Spain and co-facilitator of the intergovernmental process), and delegates from the Netherlands and civil society

Why this session matters to us

Of everything on the HLPF programme, this hour is the one closest to the reason SDGCounting exists. Beyond GDP is the argument that the number we have used for eighty years to say whether a country is doing well is measuring the wrong thing. In May 2026 the Secretary-General’s independent High-Level Expert Group delivered its answer, a report called Counting What Counts: A Compass of Progress for People and Planet, proposing a dashboard of 31 indicators. Deliberately a dashboard, not a single index. There is no one number to replace the one number.

So the analysis is done. This session was about the part that is not: whether any of it will change a decision. The panel was unusually honest that it might not.

The admission at the centre of the session

UNDP’s chief economist, who sat on the expert group, spent his time on the panel reversing a position he says he used to hold. It is the most important thing anyone said all afternoon, and it cuts against the entire theory of change behind indicator work.

George Gray Molina, UNDP: “I think that maybe five years ago I myself was a little more naive in thinking that if we just had the right metrics, we would move the capital markets. I think we need new metrics, but first we need to figure out what access to capital markets is all about.”

He then stated the reversal directly. The causation, he argued, runs the other way: settle the fight over the international financial architecture, and the metrics that fight needs will follow. Build the metrics first and nothing happens.

George Gray Molina, UNDP: “It will reveal new metrics, but I don’t think that new metrics will reveal new capital markets.”

His defence of why we need the dashboard anyway was the best framing of the case against GDP that we have heard at this Forum.

George Gray Molina, UNDP: “We’ve been listening to a radio with a single frequency. It’s the frequency of GDP. … People live on different frequencies. Some of these frequencies are day to day. The safety of people walking on the street is day to day, whereas some of the frequencies take 50 or 100 years. It’s natural capital, it’s climate, it’s the health of the planet.”

And on where the agenda actually stands: “We haven’t cracked it yet. There’s very nice messaging about this, but we haven’t cracked it as a policy agenda and as an analytic agenda.”

The question nobody answered

The Netherlands’ SDG coordinator asked the sharpest question from the floor, and it was the right one: has anyone engaged the credit rating agencies? Could a beyond-GDP metric change how a bond is priced? The answer redirected to capital-market access in general and never came back. Debt sustainability assessments, the mechanism through which a country’s numbers most directly become its budget, went unmentioned for the full hour.

What we did get was a warning from Mexico, drawn from the last time the UN built an indicator for exactly this purpose. The Multidimensional Vulnerability Index was designed to get small island states better access to concessional finance. It was built. It was adopted. And it does not bind anyone.

Rodolfo Reta Haddad, Mexico: “The final product, the resolution that came out, was not able to link this so that international financial institutions could incorporate this instrument and use it for the effects that that particular group of countries wanted.”

He was equally blunt about what member states are really negotiating over when they talk about Beyond GDP, which is not philosophy.

Rodolfo Reta Haddad, Mexico: “I can tell you that the discussion has been solely about how a group of countries can get access to concessional finance, development finance, technical capacity, and other types of resources.”

The one place it demonstrably bites

The United Kingdom offered the session’s only proven case of a beyond-GDP measure changing a decision, and it is domestic. Britain has published national wellbeing measures for about fifteen years and now reports 59 indicators, from greenhouse gas emissions to how safe people feel on their own street. What makes it more than a dashboard is the Green Book, the Treasury’s rulebook for how civil servants must do cost-benefit analysis on any policy or spending decision.

Grace Wood, UK Mission to the UN: “We actually have these kind of well-being measures and guidance integrated into that whole policy-making and budget planning process.”

She also gave a concrete example of the measurement changing a policy: because the UK data shows income and happiness decouple above a certain level, wellbeing evidence is now shaping education policy. Notably, the UK added inequality, the gender pay gap and unpaid care to its indicator set only after the pandemic, having discovered it had not been measuring them. Mexico, for its part, reported that it can already map 21 of the expert group’s 31 indicators onto data its national statistics institute already collects.

What happens next, and how to get into it

The mandate for all of this is Action 53(a) of the Pact for the Future, which asked the Secretary-General to convene the expert group. With the report delivered, an intergovernmental process is now running under the General Assembly, co-facilitated by the Permanent Representatives of Guyana and Spain. Spain’s Minister Counsellor used the floor to describe what is being negotiated, and to knock down the framing that most press coverage reached for.

Ignacio R. García Lumbreras, Spain: “Nobody is talking about replacing GDP. GDP will always be there. This is about complementing GDP.”

The live technical question, he said, is whether the 31 indicators get aggregated up into a smaller set of headline indicators, which is what the demand for a single replacement number keeps pulling toward, against a competing pull between a universal framework and national ownership of what gets counted. He also invited stakeholders, not only member states, to submit input. Anyone wanting to follow or feed into the process should start at un.org/en/beyondGDP.

Two contributions from the floor pushed back on the whole premise of a metrics-first strategy. IISD, which runs beyond-GDP work in Indonesia, Trinidad and Tobago, Ethiopia, Zambia and Ghana, argued that most countries already have enough indicators to start and should stop waiting for the perfect set. And the Ford Foundation reframed the exercise entirely.

Otto Saki, Ford Foundation: “This conversation should not be siloed as a metrics discussion.”

Our read

A session titled “from analysis to impact” produced a panel that could not name an international decision the analysis has yet changed. That is not a failure of the session. It is the most useful thing it could have told us, and it came from the people with the most to gain from claiming otherwise.

The uncomfortable implication for everyone who does this work, us included, is that indicator quality was never the binding constraint. The Multidimensional Vulnerability Index proved a UN indicator can be technically sound, politically adopted, and still change nothing, because nothing obliges a lender to look at it. The 31-indicator dashboard is a real advance in what we can see. Whether it becomes an eligibility criterion for finance or a very well-built thing sitting next to GDP is a question that will be settled in the financing negotiations, not the statistical ones. Watch the co-facilitators, and watch whether the word “headline” survives.

Why it matters for the SDGs

Beyond GDP sits underneath every goal rather than inside one, but it lands hardest on SDG 17 (the means of implementation, follow-up and review) and SDG 8, whose growth framing is precisely what is in question. If the dashboard reaches debt and finance decisions, it reshapes what countries are rewarded for reporting. If it does not, the 2030 Agenda keeps being scored against a measure that its own architects say cannot see most of what it cares about.

Watch & read

Quotations are lightly edited from an automated (Otter.ai) transcript of the UN Web TV recording and should be read as close paraphrase.